Elon Musk just posted on X that Tesla's autonomous driving technology "might spread faster than any technology ever."
Not "could be important." Not "shows promise." Faster than the internet. Faster than smartphones. Faster than electricity. Bold claim for a guy whose self-driving system is currently under federal investigation for running red lights and causing crashes.
But here's the fucked up part: He might actually be right.
Tesla has over 6 million cars on the road with the hardware for full autonomy already installed. That means a software update could theoretically enable autonomous driving for millions of vehicles overnight. No factory retooling. No hardware upgrades. Just push the update and boom - instant autonomous fleet.
Meanwhile, NHTSA just opened a probe into 2.9 million Tesla vehicles after reports that FSD caused cars to run red lights, cross into oncoming traffic, and violate basic traffic laws. Four injuries so far. But sure, let's roll this out to millions more cars ASAP.
Here's what Musk is actually saying, what Tesla's Robotaxi expansion reveals, why federal investigators are concerned, and which jobs are getting yeeted first.
What Musk Actually Said (And Why It Matters)
On October 29, 2025, Elon Musk responded to a post about Tesla's expanding Robotaxi service area in Austin by claiming that Tesla autonomous driving "might spread faster than any technology ever."
His reasoning: "The hardware foundations have been laid for such a long time that a software update enables self-driving for millions of pre-existing cars in a short period of time."
Translation: Tesla's been installing cameras, sensors, and computing hardware in every vehicle for years, betting that the software would eventually catch up. Now they're claiming it has - or at least it's close enough to start rolling out autonomy at scale.
This is actually a brilliant strategy from a deployment perspective. Every other autonomous vehicle company - Waymo, Cruise, Zoox - has to manufacture purpose-built robotaxis, deploy them city by city, build out service infrastructure, and scale gradually. It's slow, expensive, and limited.
Tesla's approach? The fleet already exists. Six million vehicles equipped with FSD-capable hardware, driving around collecting data, waiting for the software to get good enough. When (if?) it does, they flip the switch and suddenly have the world's largest autonomous vehicle fleet.
The problem? That software isn't quite ready yet. Which brings us to the federal investigation.
NHTSA Probe: Your Self-Driving Tesla Might Run Red Lights
On October 7, 2025 - three weeks before Musk's "fastest tech ever" claim - the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened an investigation into Tesla's Full Self-Driving system covering approximately 2.9 million vehicles.
The reason? Reports that FSD causes vehicles to violate traffic safety laws, including running red lights and crossing into opposing lanes of traffic.
The specific violations NHTSA is investigating:
- Red light violations: At least 18 complaints reporting FSD failed to stop at red lights or stay stopped, including cases where vehicles ran lights completely
- Wrong-way maneuvers: Vehicles entering opposing lanes during turns, crossing double yellow lines when going straight, attempting to turn the wrong way onto one-way streets
- Railroad crossing issues: FSD struggling to properly navigate railroad crossings (which is terrifying if you think about it for more than 2 seconds)
- Crash data: 58 incidents identified, resulting in 14 fires and 23 injuries
And then there's the "Mad Max" mode investigation. Tesla reintroduced an FSD setting called "Mad Max" in October 2025 with the FSD v14.1.2 update. Drivers immediately reported that vehicles using this aggressive driving profile routinely exceed posted speed limits.
NHTSA is now investigating whether Tesla's software intentionally violates traffic laws. Wild that this is even a question we have to ask.
Important context: This is a preliminary investigation. Potential outcomes range from no action to mandatory software updates or full recalls. But the fact that NHTSA is investigating nearly 3 million vehicles for systematic traffic violations is not exactly a vote of confidence in the "fastest tech rollout ever" narrative.
Austin Robotaxi Expansion: Testing the Waters
While NHTSA investigates, Tesla's aggressively expanding its Robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas.
Current stats (as of October 28, 2025):
- Service area: 243 square miles, covering approximately 80% of Austin's 305 square miles
- Recent expansion: Increased from 170 square miles to 243 square miles - a 44% expansion in two months
- Comparison to Waymo: Tesla's geofence is now roughly 2.7x larger than Waymo's 89 square miles in Austin
- Fleet size: Small - between 10-20 vehicles initially, expanded by 50% but exact numbers remain undisclosed
Here's the critical detail: Tesla's Robotaxis operate with a "Safety Monitor" sitting in the passenger seat. They're not fully autonomous. Waymo operates without any human supervision in the vehicle.
So when Musk compares Tesla's service area to Waymo's, he's comparing supervised self-driving covering 243 square miles to unsupervised autonomy covering 89 square miles. Those aren't equivalent capabilities.
But the expansion speed is real. Tesla went from concept to 243 square mile coverage in months. Waymo's been at this for over a decade and operates in a handful of cities.
The strategy is obvious: Test aggressively in Austin, gather real-world data, refine the software, expand to more cities, gradually remove the safety monitors, then roll out to the entire 6+ million vehicle fleet via software update.
If it works, Musk's claim about "fastest tech spread ever" becomes reality. Millions of autonomous vehicles operational within months.
If it doesn't work? Well, we've already got 58 crashes, 23 injuries, and an active federal investigation. So that's going great.
Who Gets Replaced First (Spoiler: Rideshare Drivers)
Let's be extremely clear about what happens if Tesla actually achieves full autonomy at scale.
Uber drivers in the US: Approximately 1.5 million active drivers
Lyft drivers in the US: Approximately 2 million active drivers (with significant overlap with Uber)
Total rideshare workforce: Roughly 1.5-2 million people earning significant income from rideshare, many as primary employment
Tesla's Robotaxi service directly competes with Uber and Lyft. If Tesla can offer rides without paying human drivers, they can undercut pricing by 60-70% and still be profitable. The economics are brutal.
Average rideshare driver take-home after vehicle costs, gas, and platform fees: $15-25/hour
Autonomous vehicle operating costs: Electricity, maintenance, insurance, amortized vehicle cost - roughly $0.30-0.50 per mile
Average rideshare trip: 6 miles
Do the math. A $20 ride that currently pays a driver $12-15 could cost $8-10 with an autonomous vehicle and still generate higher margins for the platform operator.
But here's where it gets worse: Uber and Lyft will immediately deploy their own autonomous fleets once the technology proves viable. They're not going to let Tesla eat their lunch. They'll partner with Waymo, buy vehicles from Zoox, or license Tesla's technology directly.
Once autonomous rideshare becomes economically viable in major cities, the entire human driver workforce becomes obsolete within 3-5 years. Not "reduced" or "transitioned to other roles." Eliminated.
Related casualties:
- Taxi drivers: ~200,000 in the US, already declining due to rideshare, will be finished once robotaxis scale
- Delivery drivers: If autonomous works for passengers, it works for packages - Amazon, FedEx, UPS all testing autonomous delivery at scale
- Long-haul truckers: 3.5 million in the US - autonomous trucks are further behind but advancing rapidly, highway driving is easier to automate than city streets
We're talking about 5+ million jobs directly at risk once autonomous driving actually works. And Elon's claiming Tesla's ready to deploy it to millions of vehicles via software update.
The Reality Check: Is Tesla Actually Close?
Look, we need to address the elephant in the room: Elon Musk has been promising full self-driving is "next year" since 2016.
Some of his greatest hits:
- 2016: "Full self-driving in two years"
- 2019: "Feature complete self-driving this year, robotaxis next year"
- 2020: "I'm highly confident the car will be able to drive itself with reliability in excess of a human this year"
- 2022: "FSD will work without supervision this year"
- 2025: "Might spread faster than any technology ever"
Dude's credibility on self-driving timelines is shot. He's been wrong consistently for a decade.
But here's what's different in 2025:
- Tesla's actually operating a commercial Robotaxi service in Austin (with safety monitors, but still)
- The service area is expanding rapidly - 44% growth in two months
- FSD v14 represents a significant architecture change, moving to end-to-end neural networks
- The data flywheel is real - 6 million vehicles collecting edge cases and training data continuously
The technology is measurably better than it was even a year ago. Is it good enough? NHTSA's investigation suggests no. But it's improving fast.
My take: Full unsupervised autonomy isn't happening in 2025. Probably not 2026 either. But 2027-2028? If Tesla solves the edge cases (railroad crossings, unusual traffic patterns, adverse weather), they could hit the threshold where insurance companies and regulators grudgingly approve deployment.
And when that happens, the 6 million vehicle fleet gets the update within months. That's when "fastest tech spread ever" becomes reality and rideshare drivers start updating their resumes en masse.
What You Can Do (If You Drive for a Living)
If you're earning income as a rideshare driver, delivery driver, or any driving-based job: This is your warning.
The optimistic timeline: You've got 3-5 years before autonomous driving impacts your income significantly. The pessimistic timeline: 18-24 months in major metro areas where autonomous testing is already happening.
Your realistic options:
1. Reskill aggressively now
Don't wait until autonomous services launch in your city. You need 1-2 years to develop new skills and transition careers. Start today. Focus on jobs requiring human interaction, judgment, and adaptability - things AI can't replicate yet.
2. Diversify income immediately
If rideshare is your primary income, that's dangerous. Build side income streams in unrelated fields. Have options before you need them. Don't put all your economic eggs in the "human driver" basket that's about to get automated.
3. Geographic strategy
Autonomous rollout will be city-by-city. Major metros with tech company presence (Austin, San Francisco, Phoenix, LA) will see deployment first. Smaller cities and rural areas will be 3-5 years behind. If you can relocate, you can buy time.
4. Watch the indicators
Pay attention to: NHTSA investigation outcomes, Tesla Robotaxi expansion beyond Austin, removal of safety monitors, Uber/Lyft autonomous partnerships, insurance approvals for unsupervised autonomy. When these dominos fall, deployment accelerates rapidly.
5. Join advocacy efforts
Driver unions and gig worker advocacy groups are organizing around autonomous displacement. Collective action can't stop the technology, but it can secure transition support, retraining programs, and economic assistance. Better than nothing.
The absolute worst option? Assuming this won't affect you or that it's further away than it actually is. Elon's timelines are always optimistic, but the technology is real and advancing fast.
The Bottom Line
Elon Musk claims Tesla's autonomous driving could spread faster than any technology in history because millions of existing vehicles can receive full self-driving via software update.
Is he full of shit? History suggests yes - he's been promising "next year" for a decade.
But is the core claim plausible? Also yes. Tesla's installed FSD-capable hardware in 6+ million vehicles. If the software actually works, deployment at scale happens fast. Faster than any physical product rollout in history.
Right now, the software isn't ready. NHTSA is investigating 2.9 million vehicles for running red lights and causing crashes. Tesla's Robotaxis still need safety monitors. The tech isn't there yet.
But it's close. Austin's got 243 square miles of coverage and expanding. FSD v14 is a legitimate improvement over previous versions. The data flywheel is working.
When (not if) Tesla solves the edge cases and achieves regulatory approval for unsupervised autonomy, the deployment timeline is measured in months, not years. Push the update. Millions of autonomous vehicles operational overnight.
And 1.5-2 million rideshare drivers looking for new jobs.
If you drive for a living, you've got 2-4 years to prepare. Maybe less if you're in a major metro. Use them to reskill, diversify income, and build options.
Or just vibe and hope Elon's wrong again like he's been every previous time.
That's worked great so far. Until the robotaxis actually start rolling out and your job disappears overnight via software update.