OECD Chief: AI Investment Surge Will Continue Boosting World Economy Despite Overvaluation Risks
OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann declares AI investment will keep rising, driving significant productivity growth across the global economy. Information technology capex accounts for 90% of US growth in 2025, though concerns mount over overvalued AI assets and market instability.
Source: Bloomberg →The OECD has spoken, and the message is clear: artificial intelligence investment will continue surging, driving sustained global economic growth despite mounting concerns about asset overvaluation. OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann delivered this assessment on December 16, 2025, as information technology spending reaches unprecedented levels.
The AI Investment Engine Driving World Growth
Cormann's declaration comes as hard economic data validates AI's transformative impact. Information technology capital expenditure accounted for nearly 90% of US economic growth in the first half of 2025—a statistic that underscores AI's central role in modern capitalism.
This isn't speculative enthusiasm—it's institutional validation of AI's economic fundamentals. The OECD's endorsement signals that global economic policy will continue supporting AI investment despite emerging concerns about market overvaluation.
The Productivity Revolution: AI's Long-Term Promise
Cormann's emphasis on "significant beneficial impact when it comes to productivity growth" reflects the OECD's assessment that current AI investment will reshape economic fundamentals. This productivity surge explains why companies are deploying billions in AI infrastructure despite uncertain short-term returns.
The accelerating diffusion and adoption of AI across the economy creates compounding effects that traditional economic models struggle to capture. When AI systems automate complex workflows, improve decision-making speed, and operate continuously without human limitations, productivity gains multiply across sectors simultaneously.
Global Economic Context: Modest Slowdown, AI-Driven Resilience
The OECD forecasts global growth slowing modestly from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, but this trajectory masks AI's stabilizing influence. Without AI investment surge, growth would likely decline more sharply given traditional economic headwinds.
Both Fitch and the OECD highlighted the dual nature of the AI boom: a genuine driver of investment and productivity, but also a potential source of financial-market instability. This duality defines the current economic moment.
The Overvaluation Warning: OECD's Cautious Optimism
Despite endorsing continued AI investment, Cormann acknowledged significant risks in current market dynamics:
"One of the downside risks for the economy right now is the whole issue of potentially overvalued assets and in particular in relation to the AI space."
This warning reflects growing concerns that AI equity valuations have disconnected from underlying business fundamentals. When information technology spending drives 90% of economic growth, distinguishing between genuine productivity gains and speculative excess becomes critical.
The Bubble Question: Real Value vs Market Euphoria
The OECD's balanced assessment captures the complexity of current AI markets. Strong equity performance fueled by AI enthusiasm supports consumption through wealth effects, creating positive economic feedback loops. Yet this same enthusiasm risks creating unsustainable asset bubbles.
Market participants face a paradox: AI investment generates measurable productivity gains and competitive advantages, but market pricing may reflect expectations beyond what current technology can deliver.
What This Means for Global Economic Policy
The OECD's continued support for AI investment despite overvaluation concerns signals that global economic institutions view AI as fundamentally transformative rather than merely speculative. This institutional backing shapes policy frameworks worldwide.
Central banks and regulatory bodies will likely maintain accommodative policies that support AI infrastructure development, viewing temporary market volatility as acceptable costs for long-term productivity transformation.
The Investment Trajectory: Sustained Capital Deployment
Cormann's prediction that AI investment "will continue to increase for some time" provides institutional validation for companies planning major AI infrastructure deployments. This timeline extends beyond typical technology adoption cycles.
The phrase "accelerating diffusion and adoption" indicates the OECD expects AI deployment rates to increase rather than plateau, driving continued capital expenditure across industries and geographies.
Economic Reality Check: AI as Infrastructure, Not Just Technology
The OECD's analysis positions AI investment as essential economic infrastructure rather than optional technology adoption. When information technology spending drives 90% of growth, AI becomes foundational to economic stability.
This perspective explains why the OECD endorses continued investment despite bubble risks. From an institutional viewpoint, AI productivity gains are necessary for maintaining economic competitiveness in an increasingly automated global economy.
For policymakers and business leaders, the OECD's assessment provides clear guidance: AI investment should continue despite short-term market concerns, with focus on genuine productivity applications rather than speculative deployment.
The surge in artificial intelligence investment isn't just changing markets—it's reshaping the fundamental drivers of global economic growth. The OECD's endorsement ensures this transformation will continue with institutional support, even as market risks mount.