Companies are increasingly blaming AI for layoffs. But critics say it's become a convenient excuse for cost-cutting that has nothing to do with actual automation.

The latest research suggests both sides are partially right—and that's what makes this trend so concerning for workers.

The data reveals a complex picture: Some companies are genuinely automating jobs with AI, while others are using "AI" as corporate cover for traditional downsizing. The problem is that workers can't tell which is which until it's too late.

AI Attribution in Layoffs (2024-2025)

  • 1% of firms in 2025 - Actually cite AI as layoff reason (Yale study)
  • 10% in early 2024 - Previously attributed layoffs to AI
  • 27,000+ job cuts since 2023 - Directly tied to AI automation
  • 180,000+ global cuts in 2025 - With various AI attributions

The Research That Complicates Everything

Yale University's Budget Lab released data that challenges the AI layoff narrative. Their study found only 1% of services firms reported AI as the reason for laying off workers in the past six months.

That's down dramatically from 10% in early 2024.

But here's where it gets complicated: The same time period saw companies like Amazon, Salesforce, and Microsoft explicitly tie massive layoffs to AI capabilities.

The Disconnect

How do we reconcile these conflicting narratives?

  • Survey methodology: Yale's study may miss companies using indirect AI language
  • Timing effects: Companies tested AI in 2024, deployed it in 2025
  • Classification issues: "Efficiency" vs "AI" in corporate communications
  • Sample bias: Different companies respond to surveys vs make headlines

The truth appears to be segmented: A small number of companies are genuinely automating jobs with AI, while many others are using AI as convenient justification for unrelated workforce reductions.

The Scapegoating Argument

Critics argue that AI has become corporate America's favorite excuse for decisions that have nothing to do with technology.

"It's to some extent firing people for whom there had not been a sustainable long-term perspective, and instead of saying 'we miscalculated this two, three years ago,' they can now come to the scapegoating, and that is saying 'it's because of AI though.'"

Classic Corporate Scapegoating Patterns

The AI excuse follows familiar corporate patterns:

  • 2008 Financial Crisis: "Market conditions" blamed for pre-planned cuts
  • COVID-19 Pandemic: "Pandemic impact" covered operational restructuring
  • 2025 AI Wave: "AI efficiency" justifies workforce optimization

In each case, external disruption provides cover for internal decisions that were likely coming anyway.

Why AI Makes a Perfect Scapegoat

  • Inevitability narrative: "AI is the future, we have no choice"
  • Competitive pressure: "Other companies are automating too"
  • Investor appeal: "We're investing in cutting-edge technology"
  • Reduced blame: "Technology made this decision, not us"

The Genuine Automation Cases

However, some companies are genuinely using AI to eliminate jobs—and being transparent about it.

Confirmed AI-Driven Layoffs

Amazon (14,000 jobs):

  • CEO explicitly states AI will "change the way our work is done"
  • Generative AI and agents reducing workforce needs
  • Transparent about technology-driven decisions

Salesforce (4,000 customer service jobs):

  • Agentforce AI handling support cases
  • Declining case volume due to AI efficiency
  • No need to backfill eliminated positions

Chegg (Education Technology):

  • Users prefer automated help over human agents
  • AI tutoring systems replacing human tutors
  • Performance metrics favor AI solutions

Characteristics of Genuine AI Automation

Real AI-driven layoffs tend to have specific characteristics:

  • Specific functionality replacement: AI directly performs the eliminated work
  • Performance metrics: Demonstrable AI superiority in speed, accuracy, or cost
  • Customer preference: Users actually prefer the AI solution
  • No backfilling: Positions permanently eliminated, not just downsized

The Mixed Reality

The current landscape includes both genuine automation and AI-washing of traditional layoffs. This creates a confusing environment for workers trying to assess their risk.

Genuine AI Replacement Indicators

Signs a company is actually automating with AI:

  • Specific AI deployments: Named systems handling defined tasks
  • Performance comparisons: Data showing AI vs human metrics
  • Customer feedback: Users preferring AI solutions
  • Operational changes: Workflows redesigned around AI capabilities

AI-Washing Red Flags

Signs a company is using AI as an excuse:

  • Vague AI references: "AI capabilities" without specific examples
  • Timing coincidences: AI layoffs during financial pressure
  • Inconsistent messaging: AI blamed for cuts but not operational changes
  • Industry lagging: Companies behind in actual AI deployment

The Worker Dilemma

For workers, the distinction between genuine automation and AI-washing matters less than the result: their jobs are disappearing regardless of the real reason.

The Risk Assessment Challenge

Workers face an impossible situation:

  • Legitimate automation risk: Their job might genuinely be automatable
  • Corporate cost-cutting risk: Their job might be eliminated for financial reasons
  • AI-washing risk: Their job might be eliminated and blamed on AI

In all cases, the worker loses their job. The corporate motivation becomes irrelevant.

Defense Strategies

Given this mixed reality, workers need strategies that protect against both genuine automation and AI-washing layoffs:

  1. Become AI-adjacent: Learn to work with AI tools rather than compete against them
  2. Move to strategic roles: Focus on planning and oversight vs. execution
  3. Develop judgment skills: Cultivate capabilities AI can't replicate
  4. Build company knowledge: Become too valuable to lose through institutional knowledge

The Industry Evolution

As AI capabilities actually improve, the distinction between genuine automation and AI-washing will become clearer.

Near-term Timeline (2026-2027)

  • AI-washing becomes harder: Investors demand proof of AI ROI
  • Genuine automation accelerates: AI capabilities reach more job categories
  • Corporate messaging clarity: Companies specify exact AI functions
  • Worker adaptation strategies: Clear guidance on AI-resistant skills

The Convergence Effect

Eventually, the AI-washing problem solves itself as AI actually becomes capable of replacing the jobs companies are currently blaming it for eliminating.

Companies using AI as an excuse in 2025 will find themselves using actual AI for those same functions by 2027.

What This Means

The AI-washing debate matters for understanding corporate motivations, but it doesn't change the fundamental worker challenge.

For Workers

  • Job security is declining regardless of whether AI or cost-cutting is the real cause
  • AI skills become essential for remaining relevant in either scenario
  • Strategic positioning matters more than understanding corporate motivations
  • Adaptation is urgent whether the threat is real or manufactured

For Companies

  • AI-washing becomes risky as investors demand actual AI performance data
  • Genuine automation provides competitive advantage over companies just cutting costs
  • Transparency builds trust with both investors and remaining workforce
  • Early AI adoption becomes necessary to meet market expectations

The bottom line: Whether companies are genuinely automating jobs or just using AI as an excuse, the result for workers is the same. The smart strategy is preparing for both scenarios by developing AI-adjacent skills and moving to strategic, judgment-based roles.

Because even if today's AI layoffs are partially "AI-washing," tomorrow's definitely won't be.

Original Source: CNBC / Variety

Published: 2025-11-08